Democracy at Risk?

[Introductory formalities]

We live in times in which everyone is an expert on geopolitics and global security. How Rand corporation manages to stay in business in these conditions, is beyond me. But congratulations and thank you for the invitation.

We also live in times in which our attention is dominated by geopolitical tensions and war. Again, everyone and his brother know exactly why President Putin and the Russian Federation decided to launch an aggression against their neighbor. It is not always the same truth, but it is always argued with passion and uttermost conviction. In this competitive market of alternative facts, I side with those who do not believe this happened to repel a threat from NATO. I am also not inclined to go with the explanation that this was necessary to protect the purity of the Russian nation against the invasive and destructive influence of the decadent west. If anything, on this one alone, Kremlin would find many likeminded allies in our neck of the woods. Believe me, nobody is more anti-woke than President Putin and his acolytes.

In my view, - and based on almost three decades of working with Russia, which was a member of the Council of Europe, until it was expelled just over a year ago, - the real threat for Putin came from the prospects of Ukraine developing into a fully fledged liberal democracy. Even if country faced, and still faces, many obstacles on this path, from weak governance and institutions, lack of democratic experience to endemic problems of corruption, this was clearly the choice of an overwhelming majority of the citizens of Ukraine. They manifested their determination in the Maidan revolution, in subsequent elections and in their heroic response to Russian aggression. A prospect of a democratic Ukraine, economically, institutionally, politically, socially functional and successful, was a threat that Putin could not tolerate. Just imagine what would happen if his subjects would start to think that there is an alternative to nationalistic autarchy and authoritarian rule. So Ukraine is not fighting only for its survival. This is also a battle for liberal democracy.

But the threat to liberal democracy does not only come from the outside. There are threats from within.

Firstly, we are losing support of many of our citizens, who lost trust in the institutions of liberal democracy and are either indifferent or openly eager to embrace its authoritarian alternatives. This is not the first time in recent history this is happening in Europe. Let me quote from an article by the Newsweek correspondent from Bucharest, Rosie Waldeck. In June 1940, after the Nazi troops have walked into Paris, she wrote: “The fall of France formed the climax to twenty years of failure of the promises of democracy to handle unemployment, inflation, deflation, labor unrest, party egoism and whatnot. Europe, tired of herself, and doubtful of the principles she had been living by, felt almost relieved to have everything settled…Hitler, Europe felt, was a smart guy – disagreeable, but smart. He had gone far in making his country strong. Why not try it this way?” And we know how that ended. “History does not repeat itself”, is said to have been said by Mark Twain, “but it rhymes”. Oh dear, how it rhymes. My point is that liberal democracy is built on a contract with the citizens, that their tomorrow will be better than their yesterday. When this contract is broken, or felt to be broken, democracy is in trouble.

Secondly. We are losing the support of many of our young people. Yes, they are worried. Yes, they are angry and yes, they are more engaged than young people have been just a decade or two ago. But their engagement is not by default progressive and prodemocratic. That is what uncertainty about future does. A survey from 2020 showed that a great majority of young people in western Europe are concerned about the climate change. But more than fifty percent of those surveyed said that they have greater trust in authoritarian regimes than democracies in finding a solution. A few years back, only one in three young persons in the Netherlands said he or she felt it was important to live in a democracy. Just three months ago, a study by Claims Conference revealed that nearly one quarter of Dutch millennials and gen Z believe the Holocaust was a myth or exaggerated. I am not picking on the Netherlands; but if this is situation in what is considered one of the most solid liberal democracies, we should be very worried about how support for democracy among young people is faring elsewhere.

Finally, the model of liberal democracy, which emerged in the west, is losing traction and support in many parts of the world. There are complex reasons for that, and many are homegrown and self-inflicted, but, again, against the background of the Russian aggression, we should critically ask ourselves why so many countries and so many people outside the western hemisphere have decided to sit this one out and not join or support the condemnation of the aggression and the efforts to help its victim. Is there anything in the way the west has been practicing what it preaches that has caused this? Have we always been faithful and consistent to the fault when it comes to the commitment and respect for democratic principles and rule based international order? This is not about whataboutism, which is a cynical ploy to play victims of one injustice against the victims of another, but a difficult, - but also necessary exercise – to restore confidence in a system based on the respect for individual freedom and human dignity of all. Of all.

In conclusion, the answer to the question in the title of the conference is yes. Democracy is at risk. It will not be easy to reverse its backsliding and restore the confidence and popular support, without which it can neither prosper, nor survive. We will have to have a very hard look at ourselves in the mirror. Probably take a long-distance flight from our zone of comfort and deeply entrenched patterns of thought and action. We will have to think about the link between welfare and people’s trust in democracy. We will have to invest in education and give young people a meaningful say in decisions about their future. We will have to offer them a future. We will have to work very hard to build a global alliance for democracy, founded on mutual confidence, solidarity and respect. As I said, it will not be easy, but, at the end of the day, ladies and gentlemen, do we really have a choice? Just look at the alternatives.